New Delhi: Despite a significant drop in global cocoa prices, consumers are unlikely to see a corresponding fall in chocolate prices anytime soon, industry analysts say. Cocoa, the key raw material for chocolate, is currently heading for a record annual decline after surging to historic highs last year. However, the benefits of this slide are expected to filter slowly into retail prices — if at all — with relief perhaps only reaching supermarket aisles in the second half of 2026.
Cocoa futures nearly tripled last year, driven by disease and adverse weather in major West African producing nations such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together supply more than half of the world’s cocoa. Manufacturers responded by raising chocolate prices to cope with the high input costs, a move that continues to influence current pricing.
Although cocoa prices have tumbled — falling roughly 50% from peak levels as harvest prospects improved and demand softened — they remain elevated compared with historical averages. Producers are still working through stocks purchased at peak prices, delaying any potential price reductions for finished chocolate products.
Industry experts caution that even with the substantial price correction in cocoa, chocolate-makers are unlikely to immediately lower prices for consumers. Many companies have already adjusted recipes and reduced cocoa content to manage costs, changes that are not easily reversed.
Additionally, supply chain complexities, lingering high costs across production and distribution, and cautious pricing strategies by major chocolate manufacturers mean that widespread declines in retail chocolate prices may remain elusive throughout 2026.
Consumers — still grappling with high prices for everyday goods — are therefore expected to continue paying premium prices for chocolate in the near term, even as cocoa markets cool.
Ref: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/cocoa-prices-are-plunging-why-then-is-chocolate-still-so-expensive/articleshow/126091694.cms
